The True Costs to Us of Our War in Iraq

A campaign theme for Senator Obama: The war in Iraq has gotten less attention in recent months, as the “surge” has helped militarily.   A different aspect of our involvement in Iraq, however, needs emphasis: Our war there is drastically costly to us, both in money and in permanent injuries and disabilities.  (I am discussing only our costs, not the devastating costs to the Iraqis.)

In addition to emphasizing that Senator McCain would follow most of the Bush policies, and that Senator Obama offers needed change, Obama should emphasize that we do not yet know, because the Bush administration has carefully hidden the facts, what the real costs of the war in Iraq really are.   We know the number of American troops killed, but not the number of arms and legs lost, the number of brain-damaged troops, the number of blinded troops, and so on.   (Republicans would surely cry that such questions are unpatriotic, harmful to morale, and so on, but Americans care about what has happened to their troops and are entitled to know the answers.)  Obama and Biden should also point out all the obfuscation about the economic costs of the war in Iraq.   We know the amounts appropriated each year for the war, but not the cost of materiel diverted from other military forces outside Iraq; it will be very expensive to resupply Federal and National Guard forces that have been deprived of vehicles, weapons, ammunition and personnel.  It will be even more expensive to provide pensions and health care to the many thousands of our troops permanently disabled in Iraq.  These costs are not included in the usual idea of the “cost” of the war, and are greatly increased by the huge number of survivors of major injuries that would have been fatal in prior wars.

People have complained that our government prohibits photographing the coffins and funerals of our troops killed in Iraq, but the Bush administration has kept the broader costs of the war largely unseen, as well.  Senator McCain should be publicly pressed to discuss the ongoing costs of the war, and to explain what he would do about them.   Thus far, he has only voted against improved veterans’ benefits, a most unsatisfactory position.    He talks of long-term war, but ignores the human and economic costs, including the worsened federal deficits that make us unable to solve our problems here in the United States.

Senator Obama (and others in Congress) should demand information about the full range of costs of the war in Iraq.  The Bush administration is likely to resist and delay releasing such data, at least until after the November elections.  Obama should condemn such resistance and delays, and promise to share the information with the American people if he is elected.

Being Honest to Anya (guest blog by Karen A. Levitis, 5/13/08)

Being Honest to Anya – an Essay about Grandparenthood

By Karen A. Levitis

Beautiful Anya Rose, who eerily resembles my childhood photos, is two years old and my first grandchild. There we were together on an August afternoon in the green yard of her parents’ home in Vermont. She was trying the big-girl swing which hung from the reaching branch of their ancient silver birch. Nearby, baby sister Nori slept with her forehead on the crossbar of the baby swing. Anya and I are becoming faster friends as she learns more language. She is now in the “why?” stage and injects into her discourse surprising concepts like “probably” and “actually.”

We talked about the time a few months ago when the lovely green leaves had been only buds. Soon they would change color and fall to the ground – that would be called “fall.” Anya said “There is no snow” which told me that she remembered the months last winter when the ground had been covered. “No,” I said, “But after the fall will come the winter; it will be very cold.” (She shivered at the memory) ” And one day snowflakes will start to fall from the sky.” We looked up. Anya is learning about the sky and time.

Then it began. Anya’s parents have been telling her about family relationships. They have talked about death and demonstrated with dead insects and small things. “Your Mommy died,” said Anya. “Yes, she did,” I replied. “Why?” “I don’t know why, but it made Grandma sad for a very long time.” “Why?” “Because I loved my Mommy very much.” “Why she die?” “Well, sometimes, when people get very old and have lived a very long time, they die.” (This, I knew, was a half-truth, but I was not ready to explain about the deaths of young people – I didn’t know if I had upset her already.) “Where your Mommy now?” “I don’t know, she died.” “Sometimes people buried.” “Yes, but not my Mommy Ruthie. She didn’t want to be buried. She wanted to just go away. Some little parts of her are in the lake – you know it.” (I referred to the lake at our home, but she wasn’t listening to that part, she was thinking.) “Where is she?” “I don’t know Anya Rose – she is just gone.” “My Mommy not gone,” she reassured herself. I felt that a bond had strengthened between us. No more needed to be said. We went on to talk more about summer, fall, winter, and spring.

Now this conversation between generations may seem a very simple and common occurrence, but it is uncommon for several reasons. First, most children would not be thinking about such things at all at age two, unless they had already experienced a painful death. Second, Anya is blessed with parents who have always been honest, have told her the truth as they understand it. No Santa myths or dreams about heaven! Third, no persons in the extended family, whatever their religious affiliations, would contradict the heartfelt honesty of Anya’s parents. So Anya is told as much truth as she wants and can understand.

What a fortunate child is Anya Rose! No one teaches her that truth for children is different from truth for adults. No one imparts the belief that reassuring dreams are preferable to facts. She will never be convinced that the country can lower taxes and the deficit at the same time with no consequence, or that war in another country is less horrible than devastation at home. And another thing which is very much to my liking: Even though two-year-old Anya sent to me, her Grandma, an unexpected jolt of emotional pain, and reminded me of a fact of life that even I only dimly understand, the truth between us traveled through a real, person-to-person connection. The transformation has occurred – Anya Rose is no longer a baby, and we are friends.

Letter about Iraqi Oil Rush editorial

The New York Times did not print my letter to the Editor about a 6/22/08 editorial:

Your editorial today about “plans by major Western oil companies to return to Iraq” notes that “the evolving deals could well rekindle understandable suspicions in the Arab world about oil being America’s real reason for invading Iraq.” Such suspicions are found not only among Arabs, but also among Americans, including myself. If Iraq and its neighbors had no oil, we would have been much less likely to invade and occupy Iraq. Our president and vice president have strong ties to the oil industry, and are trying to undo the nationalization of Iraqi oil 36 years ago. All the other reasons for invasion and occupation given at various times are just excuses, and have led to many American and Iraqi deaths and to the weakening of our country, militarily, economically and internationally.

The Politicians and the Gas Tax Holiday

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/12/opinion/l12gas.html

This is the link to a letter I wrote to the Editor of The New York Times, in response to an editorial on May 8, entitled “The Tax Trickery Spreads.” The letter was printed 5/12/2008, about how senseless a summertime gas tax pause would be.

Selling deteriorated armaments to the U.S. government

A New York Times article, “Supplier Under Scrutiny on Aging Arms for Afghans” (The New York Times, Front Page, 3/27/2008),  told of an American company buying old, run-down ammunition and reselling it to our government as good; this at first shocked me, but then I remembered that this is nothing new.  In our Civil War, J. P. Morgan created the basis of his fortune by financing the purchase of 5000 obsolete and unsafe carbines for $3.50 each and reselling them to the U. S. Army for $22.00 each; though superficially renovated, many of them failed to function or even exploded when fired.  A court ruled that the contract for the carbines did not specify that they had to  be safe or even work, so Morgan got to keep the huge profits, worth millions of current American dollars. (http://www.smashtheman.com/Smash/Articles/Article.aspx?ID=18)

The current contract, worth hundreds of millions of dollars, seems to have been issued irregularly, with inadequate evaluation of the ability of the suppliers (a small company, new to such work) to provide huge amounts of good ammunition properly, making it possible for old ammunition, some going back to China in 1966, to be provided to the Afghan Army.  Much of it had been stored improperly, resulting in corrosion on the outside and deterioration of the gunpowder.  This hurts the war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, wastes our money, and probably costs many lives.  If we are going to fight wars, we need to manage them competently, instead of allowing destructive profiteering by contractors, whether suppliers, mercenary fighters, builders or others.  The Bush administration has been grossly incompetent at this.

Effects of supernovas on Earth: more information

Impact on Earth (part of Wikipedia’s article on Supernovas – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supernova)

(Perhaps supernovas relatively near us have affected life on Earth, either in major extinction episodes, as below, or  less severely, in terms of partial damage to the ozone layer or direct mutations.)

A near-Earth supernova is an explosion resulting from the death of a star that occurs close enough to the Earth (roughly fewer than 100 light-years away) to have noticeable effects on its biosphere. Gamma rays are responsible for most of the adverse effects a supernova can have on a living terrestrial planet. In Earth’s case, gamma rays induce a chemical reaction in the upper atmosphere, converting molecular nitrogen into nitrogen oxides, depleting the ozone layer enough to expose the surface to harmful solar and cosmic radiation. The gamma ray burst from a nearby supernova explosion has been proposed as the cause of the end Ordovician extinction, which resulted in the death of nearly 60% of the oceanic life on Earth.^[78]

Speculation as to the effects of a nearby supernova on Earth often focuses on large stars as Type II supernova candidates. Several prominent stars within a few hundred light years from the Sun are candidates for becoming supernovae in as little as a millennium. One example is Betelgeuse, a red supergiant 427 light-years from Earth.^[79] Though spectacular, these “predictable” supernovae are thought to have little potential to affect Earth.

Recent estimates predict that a Type II supernova would have to be closer than eight parsecs (26 light-years) to destroy half of the Earth’s ozone layer.^[80] Such estimates are mostly concerned with atmospheric modeling and considered only the known radiation flux from SN 1987A, a Type II supernova in the Large Magellanic Cloud. Estimates of the rate of supernova occurrence within 10 parsecs of the Earth vary from once every 100 million years^[81] to once every one to ten billion years.^[82]

Type Ia supernovae are thought to be potentially the most dangerous if they occur close enough to the Earth. Because Type Ia supernovae arise from dim, common white dwarf stars, it is likely that a supernova that could affect the Earth will occur unpredictably and take place in a star system that is not well studied. One theory suggests that a Type Ia supernova would have to be closer than a thousand parsecs (3300 light-years) to affect the Earth.^[83] The closest known candidate is IK Pegasi (see below).^[84]

In 1996, astronomers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign theorized that traces of past supernovae might be detectable on Earth in the form of metal isotope signatures in rock strata. Subsequently, iron-60 enrichment has been reported in deep-sea rock of the Pacific Ocean by researchers from the Technical University of Munich.^[85][86][87]

Curves with no data points

Letter for Floyd Norris, business columnist,  The New York Times, 2/24/2006

Dear Mr. Norris:  Your column today, “Auditor’s Links Did Not Stop This Fraud” (Business Day, 2/24/06, p. C1), compares a suggested graph of “Quality of Audit”versus “Degree of Independence,” asking, “Is This Real?”

The answer, of course, is that it is not real.  Like the Laffer Curve, which you note it suspiciously resembles, it has no data points.  Without any measurements/numbers, it is a dishonest attempt to get the controls on auditors loosened, just as the Laffer Curve was a dishonest way to get tax rates lowered.    Gerald M. Levitis

Some misunderstandings of evolution

Letter to University of Pennsylvania alumni magazine 2/22/06, slightly expanded

The two letters in your Winter 2006 issue about “Creative Licence” article deserve a response.  John Shirk says that “Macroevolution remains an unproven theory” because of a lack of known intermediate forms such as a “fish-with-legs fossil.”  There are a great many intermediate fossils, including some fish with proto-legs and marvelous whales with legs; even now, fetal whales have small legs.  (The term macroevolution refers to the distinctly different forms that species end up with after long periods of becoming more  different from each other; they start out  barely different from each other, but not  interbreeding because of geographic separation or other factors.)

Albert McGlynn supports intelligent design over a long time, but says that “If natural phenomena show complexity that is, at this point, ‘irreducible,’ acknowledging there might be a creator seems to be the intelligent approach.”  He again uses the term “at this point” about “life forms that … appear to be irreducibly complex …where natural selection will not preserve functional intermediates.”  The term “at this point” relates only to what we know now; it presupposes we will never learn how intermediates could have functioned.  This is an abdication of reason, and a regression to “God of the Gaps” theology, analogous to ascribing lightning bolts to the god Thor before anything was known about electricity.  It is not science, and not even good theology.    Gerald M. Levitis

Asimovian robots do not kill humans

Letter to the Editor of Science Times, 2/14/06

The first sentence of Daniel Wilson’s column, “If Robots Ever Get Too Smart, He’ll Know How to Stop Them” (Science Times, 2/14/06. p. F1), gets it wrong. He says, “In Isaac Asimov’s collection of stories, “I, Robot,” robots rise up against humanity.” This was impossible in the book, as contrary to the First Law of Robotics, “A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.” This was built into every robotic positronic brain. Only in the movie, (which I have declined to see) did robots rebel and kill humans.

You will probably get hundreds of letters like this. Gerald M. Levitis

The Literary Darwinists

Letter to The New York Times Magazine, 11/5/2005

Dear Magazine Editor: Both science and literature often find it useful to understand an event or interaction in more than one way at the same time. D. T. Max, in the article, “The Literary Darwinists (Magazine, 11/6/05), loses track or this. He says that “evolutionary psychology has replaced Freud. Who, upon discovering that a remote tribe had an incest taboo, would ascribe it to an unconscious repression on the part of the sons of their sexual attraction to their mothers? Instead, we would likely cite an evolutionary biology principle that states that we have involved an innate repulsion to inbreeding because it creates birth defects and birth defects are a barrier to survival.”

As a psychiatrist, a Darwinian, a Freudian and a fan of Jane Austen, I find no conflict between these descriptions of the reason for the incest taboo. The evolutionary benefit of the taboo is clearly to avoid inbreeding and birth defects, but in always-complicated humans, the taboo works by producing anxiety about incestuous attractions and therefore repressing the attraction. The two levels of understanding add to each other, not detract from each other. The terms incest taboo, innate repulsion and unconscious repression are complementary aspects of the same behavior.

D.T. Max gets back to the broader view near the end of the article, writing, “Humans are complex, and the best books about them are too.” The best biological understandings are complex, too, and often more interesting than one-level descriptions. Gerald M. Levitis